That Saudi Arabia is taking the lead role during this promising yet difficult phase in the history of the Arab struggle suggests that the Arab future may not be heading for the better.
Saudi Arabia usually adopts policies that match its regime’s conservative nature. It is a regime that is resistant to internal change and to revolution — any revolution in any Arab country.
So it was surprising to see the foreign minister of Saudi Arabia — a country that normally follows a "white silence" policy — standing in front of Europe’s presidential palaces, defending the revolutionary movement in Egypt and facing the West’s objections and reservations, regardless of their sincerity, about the June 30 Egyptian popular uprising that brought down the Muslim Brotherhood’s rule.
Saudi Arabia’s hostility to the Muslim Brotherhood and the latter’s reaching power are not enough to explain why Saudi Arabia suddenly changed its longstanding policy. Saudi Arabia had long opposed change movements in the Arab world by various means. And when a change movement does succeed, Saudi Arabia responds by either closing its doors to that movement or by "hosting" the deposed regime’s figures, whom Saudi Arabia might help put back in power if the opportunity presents itself.
That Saudi Arabia departed from its longstanding policy looks suspicious: Did the kingdom have a hand in overthrowing the Muslim Brotherhood’s rule in Egypt? It is true that the Brotherhood was deposed after millions of angry people poured onto the streets on June 30 in an unprecedented scene. But Saudi Arabia is not known for greeting, or even accepting, the street’s opinion, especially when that opinion becomes a decision-maker that brings down a failed regime, fights the risk of civil war, and recovers its right to choose a regime that secures the people’s needs of progress and restores Egypt’s right to lead instead of being led by others.
Has the golden kingdom penetrated the Egyptian army, seduced its leadership with governing power, and enticed it into adopting the people’s demands by going as far as jailing an elected president and confronting his supporters, who belong to the most organized movement in the Arab world?
Can the golden kingdom, which considers itself the United States’ "second ally" after Israel, embrace the Egyptian revolution even before the US and embarrass Europe — which is already embarrassed — by taking it upon itself to defend the banner of democracy in Egypt?
The kingdom, which is not known for being proactive, has taken the initiative from the first days of the uprising against the Brotherhood’s rule. It has given the new rule billions of dollars. It then suggested, or rather demanded, that the Gulf countries do the same. And they did so, because the Saudi request was accompanied by a reassurance that Egypt after the Brotherhood will be a base of stability in the region, and because Iran had a significant alliance with the Brotherhood. So a revolution in Egypt will strengthen the anti-Iran front. It will also weaken Iran’s project to "export the revolution" and cause problems for "Arab conservatives." Iranian strength stems from adopting Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hezbollah is the party that resoundingly defeated Israel in the summer of 2006.
We can keep asking questions even though there are no complete answers yet. Let us remember that Saudi Arabia has already taken Qatar’s place as the leader of the war in Syria. Saudi Arabia has dispatched its international negotiating expert Prince Bandar bin Sultan to Russia to make it an offer it can’t refuse. Russia is a major Syrian ally and can influence the balance of power there. Despite that, Russia’s leadership rejected the Saudi offers and insisted on maintaining its support to what it considers its important geostrategic ally. Russia also refused to downgrade its strategic alliance with a great friend who was formerly a historic enemy: Iran.
The Saudi position adds a set of complexities to the Arab scene. It is strange that the golden kingdom is supporting and promoting a glorious popular revolution that is rare in human history and requesting the world to support it while the kingdom raises the slogan of building a democratic regime in Egypt. A democratic regime in Egypt would restore Egyptian leadership in the Arab world and increase its influence in Africa and Asia to a certain extent. Strange also is the kingdom’s generosity in supporting the shaky Egyptian economy. The golden kingdom is acting unusually. It seems to be fighting a "war" in defense of change and revolution!
In any case, regardless of Saudi Arabia’s goal, we must consider this Saudi and Gulf behavioral shift — even if it was part of an attempt to domesticate and contain the revolutions — as a fruit of the popular uprisings, which have not yet yielded all their benefits. Those uprisings still hold in store a lot of surprises for the Arab world.
History teaches us that revolutions may suffer setbacks or fall short of their goals, but fighting the process of change needs more than gold, especially if the people in the streets are continuing their struggle to achieve the revolution’s goals.
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