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By: Sami Kleib
Published Tuesday, November 19, 2013
In a recent phone conversation with Bashar al-Assad, small bits of which were revealed to the press, Russian President Vladimir Putin reaffirmed his country’s military and political support for Syria and its president. Moscow wanted Damascus to know that it appreciates its cooperation on making Geneva II a success, and to declare that the greatest danger to Syria comes from the terrorists and extremists.
At the beginning of the Syrian crisis, the Russians avoided publicly meeting with their Syrian counterparts – the situation then was still unclear to Moscow. Today, they have a better grasp of the internal situation and what needs to be done to end the fighting.
Two days after Putin’s phone call, the regime in effect declared the beginning of the long-awaited battle of Qalamoun, a mountainous region that runs along the border with Lebanon and is mostly under the opposition’s control. For their part, Saudi Arabia and the armed groups it backs in this area will do what they can to prevent another regime victory on the battlefield.
Perhaps a decision was also made on following through with the battles raging over Aleppo and its suburbs. It appears that it is beginning to dawn on nearby Turkey that the proposed US-Russian settlement in Syria is serious. This was reflected in Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu’s recent visit to Baghdad to make amends with the Iraqi central government – a trip that appears to have been arranged with the help of Iran.It has become clear that Iran is at the center of many events in the region, and the success or failure of its negotiations over its nuclear file will determine how events will unfold in the coming period. Head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Yukiya Amano’s positive statements after visiting Iran helped the US administration convince Congress to loosen the economic sanctions on the Islamic Republic.
Russia, too, is making its presence felt in the region – it is no passing matter that its ministers of defense and foreign affairs both visited Cairo recently to discuss expanding ties between the two countries. It appears that the new military-backed government in Cairo is interested in diversifying its international support, so that it is not beholden to Saudi money or US blackmail.If in fact the Iranians and the West do come to an agreement on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program, then the face of the region as a whole is likely to change. Then, we will certainly see a Geneva II conference with Iran in attendance, in addition to growing pressures on those countries that are fueling the fighting in Syria with money and arms. But if Israel and its allies – old and new – get their way, then we may witness a long and devastating escalation instead.
The views expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect Al-Akhbar's editorial policy.
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This article is an edited translation from the Arabic Edition.