Monday December 9, 2013, no161
Weekly information and analysis bulletin specialized in Arab Middle Eastern affairs prepared by neworientnews.com
Editor in chief Wassim Raad
wassimraad73@gmail.com
New Orient Center for Strategic policies

Western countries will inevitably return to Damascus

The French and Belgian Ministers of Interior, Manuel Valls and Joelle Milquet, warned Friday December 6 in Brussels, against the increasing high number of Europeans who travel to Syria to fight in the ranks of groups affiliated with Al-Qaeda. They said that these young people are becoming a threat to the European Union countries, the U.S., and their Canadian and Australian allies.

Hassan Nasrallah, General Secretary of Hezbollah

«The Tripoli blasts were employed to launch political accusations while we did not accuse anyone following the Bir al-Abed and Rweiss blasts until we knew the identity of those who sent the cars and those who carried out the attacks. What we understood from what the judiciary said is that Ali Eid’s driver is accused of smuggling a person to Syria. Let us assume that that is correct, would that mean that Ali Eid is behind the bombings? The aim of accusing Sheikh Hashem Minqara was to humiliate our allies and it turned out that he is not involved. Any bombing that targets civilians is condemned and I was saddened by the Tripoli bombings more than I was saddened by the Dahieh blasts. A lot of these groups that have the Qaida ideology are linked to the Saudi intelligence and in my opinion, the bombing has to do with the Saudi anger against Iran in the region. 

We believe the statement in which the Abdullah Azzam Brigades claimed responsibility for the attack on the Iranian embassy, because it is a well-known group and its emir is Saudi and it is linked to the Saudi intelligence. The Iranian embassy bombing has to do with targeting Iran by those who consider it to be an enemy since 1979 and by those who teach at their institutes that it is an enemy. Hundreds of martyrs would have fallen had the armed groups seized control of the border area with Lebanon and consequently Lebanese areas (…) 

According to my information, the number of troops lost by the regime is greater than the number of fighters lost by the rival camp. I expect very fierce confrontations in Syria ahead of the Geneva conference and a major standoff might arise, but the same as they failed in Eastern Ghouta, all these attempts will fail. The endeavor to topple the Syrian regime militarily has ended and things are heading to peace talks in Geneva. Most European countries are reopening channels of communication with the regime and there is only the obstacle of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia which is still insisting on fighting till the last drop of blood in Syria (…)  Claims that we have lost 350 or 500 or 1,000 fighters in Eastern Ghouta are wishful thinking. We knew that martyrs would fall and some fighters might be captured. 

There is not a single Hizbullah captive in Syria today and some bodies of martyrs are still missing. Our presence in Syria is very modest and it is limited to Damascus and Qusayr, while the Syrian army is carrying out the operations in Qalamoun and our participation there is very modest. We are not fighting on behalf of the Syrians. There is not a single Hizbullah fighter in Daraa, Deir Ezzor, al-Raqqa, Hasakeh, Idlib, Latakia or Tartus. 

We have a limited presence in Homs and Damascus near the (Lebanese) border. I’m surprised by claims that Iran is occupying Syria because there are only dozens of experts who have been in Syria since 1982. There are exaggerations in Lebanon about the level of Hizbullah’s military intervention and we say that those fighting with the regime are mainly the army and the National Defense committees. 


The day will come when everyone will thank us for our intervention (in Syria) and they will thank the young men who were martyred. What are the guarantees that can be offered by the March 14 camp? Do they believe that their scheme has succeeded? Let them ask Saad Hariri and Oqab Saqr. Ask March 14 about their guarantees if the armed groups seize control of Syria. We are fighting in Syria to defend Lebanon. Let us observe how these groups are fighting each other and how ISIL and Nusra are executing FSA commanders. 

Should we abandon our responsibilities, the Lebanese-Syrian border would be invaded and I give you the example of the booby-trapped cars that are coming from Yabrud and Nabak. As time progressed, we had to increase the numbers (of fighters in Damascus) ahead of the major intervention in Qusayr. Had it not been for Hizbullah’s intervention in Qusayr’s countryside, the armed groups would have invaded all these towns, but we went there and ended the battle. Things deteriorated in Syria but we did not immediately send forces to Syria. We took gradual steps, which began in the towns inhabited by Lebanese residents in Qusayr. When the Syrian army retreated from these towns, the residents sought our help because shameful things had happened there. They had two options: the displacement of 30,000 people or defending their areas. 


I must note that the Lebanese government did not offer any help (…) There would have been no problems in Lebanon had March 14′s relation with Saudi Arabia been like our relation with Iran, because Iran does not interfere in our decisions at all, neither in the issue of cabinet nor in the other domestic issues. We don’t ask Iran and we don’t take its permission, while Saudi Arabia dictates to March 14. Right now, Iran is the most important state in the region and it is consulting with us and it sometimes endorses our viewpoint on certain issues. Iran’s stance on the Palestinian cause is ideological and it did not change during the Geneva negotiations (…) Despite the acute dispute with the Turks over Syria, we did not sever our contacts with the Turkish ambassador to Lebanon and meetings took place with Turkish officials. The new development is taking place between the Turks and the Iranians and between the Turks and the Iraqis. We sat with the Qatari envoy and told him that the military choice in Syria is futile and the attempt to oust Assad militarily is an act of madness, that’s why I call on all countries to contribute towards finding a political solution. We also spoke of neutralizing Lebanon in the Syrian crisis.»

«Hezbollah revealed its true face, made its project public, and put its strategy into practice. It is acting against the constitution and the laws. Hezbollah doesn’t want the cover or support of anyone, and is pursuing what it believes in, regardless of the opinions of others in this country.»

• Diplomacy with Iran must be backed up by US military might, Pentagon chief Chuck Hagel said Saturday in a speech addressed to Gulf allies anxious over a nuclear deal with Tehran. Hagel promised the United States would maintain a 35,000-strong force in the Gulf region, as well as an armada of ships and warplanes, despite the recent deal with Tehran. Speaking at a security conference in Bahrain, he said the interim deal with Iran to roll back its nuclear program was a risk worth taking but that Western diplomacy should not be “misinterpreted.” The Pentagon “will not make any adjustments to its forces in the region – or to its military planning – as a result of the interim agreement with Iran,” he added. In a trip meant to reassure Gulf allies wary of America’s diplomatic opening with Iran, Hagel enumerated an array of US weaponry and resources deployed in the region. “We have a ground, air, and naval presence of more than 35,000 military personnel in and immediately around the Gulf,” he said. The military footprint includes 10,000 US Army troops with tanks and Apache helicopters, roughly 40 ships at sea including an aircraft carrier battle group, missile defense systems, radar, surveillance drones and warplanes that can strike at short notice, he said. “Coupled with our unique munitions, no target is beyond our reach,” said Hagel, in an apparent reference to “bunker buster” bombs designed to penetrate deeply buried targets. “Questions have been raised about America’s intentions, strategy, and commitment to the region,” he said. He promised the United States “will remain fully committed to the security of our allies and our partners in the region.”

• In an interview with the daily As Safir, Ambassador of France to Lebanon, Patrice Paoli, rejected any link between the double attack against the Iranian Embassy in Beirut and Hezbollah involvement in the war in Syria. “The attack targeted the Iranian chancery, not Hezbollah,” he said. The diplomat also expressed “concern” of France because of the French involvement in the fighting in Syria. “France has made efforts to combat extremists in Mali and it does not encourage the development of a similar extremism in Syria,” said Paoli.

• The parliamentary bloc of the Loyalty to the Resistance (Hezbollah) estimated that the rise of tension and chaos in Tripoli is the result of the support of 14 -Mar to the gangs of the city and their coverage of Takfirists’ acts. The block also denounced terrorist acts against Christian sites in Syria and the abduction of nuns in Maaloula.

• The pan-Arab satellite channel al-Mayadeen reported that the Lebanese national Ahmad Hojeiri and thirteen other armed men from Ersal were killed in an ambush by the Syrian Army, near the region Mazareh Rima, in the Syrian Qalamoun.
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For the second consecutive day, the hypothesis of the involvement of the Israeli enemy in the assassination of Hassan al-Lakkis has increased. Sources said that investigators collected evidence showing that Israeli fingerprints in the crime are the most visible.

It seems that the sound of the presidential battle is now louder than any other sound in Beirut. All attitudes and actions, whether overt or covert, are now proceeding according to the rhythm of the most important electoral event in Lebanon come spring.

Who made the decision to strike such a painful blow to the Islamic Resistance in Lebanon by assassinating one of its military commanders, Hassan al-Laqqis? Who planned the operation, and who decided on carrying it out at this particular time? On what basis, and in whose interest? And what were the intended goals of this potentially explosive action?

MP Walid Jumblatt is convinced that the crisis in Syria, which has also spilled into parts of Lebanon, is a game being played by powerful international and regional forces that render any internal solution impossible in both countries. “We are impotent,” he declares, “and I don’t have a solution – we are living in the shadow of an international struggle.”

Donors in Saudi Arabia have notoriously played a pivotal role in creating and maintaining Sunni jihadist groups over the past 30 years. But, for all the supposed determination of the United States and its allies since 9/11 to fight “the war on terror”, they have showed astonishing restraint when it comes to pressuring Saudi Arabia and the Gulf monarchies to turn off the financial tap that keeps the jihadists in business.

Compare two US pronouncements stressing the significance of these donations and basing their conclusions on the best intelligence available to the US government. The first is in the 9/11 Commission Report which found that Osama bin Laden did not fund al-Qa’ida because from 1994 he had little money of his own but relied on his ties to wealthy Saudi individuals established during the Afghan war in the 1980s. Quoting, among other sources, a CIA analytic report dated 14 November 2002, the commission concluded that “al-Qa’ida appears to have relied on a core group of financial facilitators who raised money from a variety of donors and other fund-raisers primarily in the Gulf countries and particularly in Saudi Arabia”.

Idriss didn’t demand as a precondition that President Bashar al-Assad resign before negotiations begin. Instead, he said, Assad’s departure should come “at the end of negotiations.” This position was echoed by Monser Akbik, a spokesman for the Syrian Opposition Council, the moderate rebels’ political arm.