WP: 3rd Anniversary of Syria Crisis, Al-Assad Steadily Winning War - US Intel: "Assad has as good as won"

WP: 3rd Anniversary of Syria Crisis, Al-Assad Steadily Winning War

Local Editor

The Washington Post US daily stressed that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is in a stronger position than ever before to quell the armed group against his rule.

Aided by the steadfast support of his allies and the deepening disarray of his foes, al-Assad is pressing ahead with plans to be reelected to a third seven-year term this summer while sustaining intense military pressure intended to crush his opponents.

According to the US daily, the strategy is not new, but in recent months it has started to yield tangible progress in the form of slow but steady gains on several key fronts.

Most notably, the government has pushed the armed groups back or squeezed them into isolated pockets in large swathes of the territory surrounding Damascus, diminishing prospects that the opposition will soon be in a position to seriously threaten the capital or topple the regime. 

"More than ever there is no hope. Not on the ground and not politically," Abu Emad said, using a pseudonym to protect his identity. "For the rebels to win, it will take a miracle."

The extent of the progress has been such that al-Assad felt confident enough this week to travel 20 miles outside Damascus, through territory held by the armed groups for much of the past two years. In the northeastern suburb of Adra, he visited displaced people, promised them aid and pledged to uphold the fight.

But the likelihood is growing that al-Assad will be able to pacify enough of the country to sustain his hold on power and claim victory, said Jeffry White, military analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. 

"The possibility of the regime winning in a real sense is there," he said. "It depends on a lot of factors - that the regime continues to get support from [the Lebanese militia] Hizbullah and Iran, that there's no outside intervention, and that the rebels don't get better organized or new weaponry. But unless the rebels can change the situation on the ground in some way, the regime is going to keep grinding them down."

Deepening rifts among the rebels have further enhanced the government's prospects. A revolt in January by an assortment of diverse armed groups against the al-Qaeda-inspired so-called "Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant [ISIL] led to widespread bloodshed across northern Syria.

The daily further noted that "the rebel landscape has since continued to fragment. Al-Qaeda's central command repudiated ISIL, triggering a rift between that group and al-Qaeda's main Syrian affiliate, al-Nusra Front, that has erupted in fighting in the east of the country. The mainstream Supreme Military Council, backed by the United States, has split into two feuding camps after the ouster of its commander, Gen. Salim Idriss.


Liwa al-Tawheed, the biggest armed groups' force in Aleppo, lost 500 men in those weeks, compared with 1,300 in two years of fighting government forces, according to a logistician with the brigade, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. His brigade is deeply divided over the confrontation with ISIL, with some battalions in favor of fighting the extremists and others opposed, and the subject is sensitive even within his own unit.

"It has taken a heavy toll, and the regime is taking full advantage," he said of the rebel rifts. "Now we are in danger of losing Aleppo."

Meanwhile, preparations are gathering pace in Damascus for presidential elections due by July under the terms of Syria's current constitution.
Source: WP, Edited by website team
------

US Intel: "Assad has as good as won"

'Despite the meager results of Secretary of State Kerry’s six hours of talks with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov on March 14^th, State Department officials are not despairing of a diplomatic solution to the Crimea crisis. Kerry is calling the talks “constructive.” Contrary to the media build-up, officials never saw the session with Lavrov as “last ditch’ or “make or break.” One official summed things up to us: “We were certainly hoping for more, but Kerry was able to use his already good relationship with Lavrov to offer a number of very specific ideas for greater autonomy for Crimea. These will form the basis of further talks after the referendum.”  Critics on the Hill, however, believe that the referendum will only harden Moscow's position in having the Crimea return to Russian sovereignty.  This is not to say that that situation is not extremely volatile. There is deep concern in Washington that President Putin has misread the determination of the West to impose costs on him or – much worse – that he will intervene in Eastern Ukraine if civic disturbances continue there. The Administration’s hope is that the increasingly tough approach adopted by German Chancellor Merkel – who is seen in Washington as the pivotal player – will convince Putin to have second thoughts. As an NSC analyst commented to us: “We have a good understanding about Lavrov but we hardly any read of Putin.” There is a sense of foreboding that, once sanctions start to be imposed, attitudes will harden in Moscow and the crisis will turn into a prolonged one – with implications on other issues in the US-Russia relationship like Syria, Iran, North Korea and nuclear disarmament. With new P5+1 talks due with Tehran next week, US officials are at present encouraged that the Russian attitude remains cooperative.  Regarding Syria, US attention has dropped precipitately, with the result that US intelligence analysts are warning that Assad is making military gains that will be near impossible to reverse. One analyst commented to us: “Assad has as good as won.” ...'

• Yabroud City in Syrian Army’s Hand, Militants Flee
• Saudi Crown Prince Calls for Pressure on Syrian Government
• نتائج يبرود حسمت المؤامرة
• سينـاريـو «البويضة الشرقيّة» يتكرّر في «فليطة»

• قلعة الحصن: معركة جديدة بانتظار الجيش السوري
  

• ويتساءلون عن اسباب صمود النظام السوري حتى اليوم !؟

• Syrian Army Advances in Yabroud, Terrorists Collapse
• 15 Suspects Arrested for Sending Militants to Syria: Europe, North Africa
• Syrian Lawmakers Approve New Election Law
• WSJ/NBC News Poll: Obama’s Approval Rating Hits New Low
• Friends of Syria Conference Held in Tehran: Syrians Should Decide on Own Future