The process of democratization in the Arab world called, the Arab Spring, although it can be estimated relatively unsuccessful because of the reactionary military coup in Egypt, prolongation of bloodshed in Syria and its disastrous humanitarian disaster and the intensification of internal sectarian conflicts Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and some Persian Gulf states, in no way can this process be underestimated, as the driving force significant changes in the Middle East.
Arab Spring has initiated processes, which are currently discontinued, but in the long run can not be stopped. These processes at a sufficiently successfully transformed the existing Middle East. Not only have crushed the status quo, which over the last century has prevailed in this region, but that the game has introduced new players who struggle to lead geopolitical prestige and control of resources but also the Islamic discourse. These are above all three major Muslim forces, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Iran. In the Middle East, the scene is currently present phenomenon which some analysts call the cold war which is manifested in two ways.
The first is Suniton-Shi’ite conflict in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and some Persian Gulf states (Bahrain). Alongside this is the conflict that is taking place within Sunni Islam, and its main protagonists are Turkey and Saudi Arabia. These two countries are fighting for control of interpretation and Islamic discourse, in other words to try to make their favor Sunni Muslims in the Arab world in particular and the Islamic world in general.
In this case, Turkey is emerging as a serious challenge to the Saudi interpretation of Islam, and therefore the Saudi influence in the Islamic world. Turkey on this issue is a new player, or even older in the Near East, as her active role has launched a decade ago, with the coming to power of the AKP party pro islam and after passing deep strategic doctrine the Davutogllusë.
Critics of Turkish foreign policy have called Turkish foreign policy, covered with neo-Ottoman garb, which means putting ideology of Turkish culture, political and economic hegemony in the geographical territories that were once part of the Ottoman Empire. While some Arab countries, Tunisia, Egypt (during the government of ousted President Mursi), Qatar, Yemen, and Islamic movements like the Muslim Brothers in Syria, the Gulf States and Hamas in Gaza, with the two hands have received commitment Turkey’s active in the political scene in the Middle East, against whom Saudi Arabia has strongly protested, since Turkey does not share the same democratic values, especially the model of state governance concept.
Regional rivalry Turkey and Saudi Arabia has intensified after the Arab Spring. It is felt nowhere as in Egypt. For the moment, at least temporarily Saudi policy has managed to bring the impact defeated Turkish model of governance in Egypt as a major cultural, political, intellectual Arab world, as well as a significant factor in the political scene in the Middle East over the past century, which is currently paralyzed to the extent that active participant so far has turned into a passive object in the battlefield of two rival political competition who today fight for the hearts and souls of the Muslim world.
Turkey and its influence in the Arab world have largely been based on close relations with the AKP’s Islamist movement of the Muslim Brotherhood, which represents the most organized political force in the Islamic Arab world, which is currently banned in Egypt, Saudi Arabia , but also in other states of the Persian Gulf. Turkish politics has desired that in the Arab world, thanks to the popularity and political democratization waves which caused the Arab Spring in Tunisia, Egypt, Syria, and later in other countries of the Arab world, comes to putting without pain pro-democratic governments Islamic measured according to the model of DNA administration in Turkey, or the logic of the Christian Democrats in Europe. Under this scenario mentioned Arab states would be turned to Turkey as a reference point of inspiration political, economic, cultural as leading the development of their future.
It seems that Washington has supported early this such development in the Middle East, Turkey often mentioned as an example of modern Islamic democracy measure, at the same time and loyal ally of the West as well as being a NATO member. Turkish politics has started from the premise that Islam and democracy are compatible with this interpretation is that efforts to expand and consolidate the alliance with conservative Islamic movements who share similar views.
This interpretation of Islamic Turkey is strongly opposed Saudi Arabia, while Iran has managed to put complete control Shiite political sphere, despite the Sunni sphere is clear that there is no consensus on rule changes and inconsistent interpretation of the political role of Islam, so that none of such interpretations is failing to dominate. Unlike Turkey, which sees natural allies, Saudi Arabia, Muslim Brothers has declared a terrorist organization and that long ago approved the anti-terrorism law, whose role is to try and complete control over its Sunni population prevent infiltration of Islamic unacceptable interpretations that could come out of Riyadh. Also pressuring the governments of its allies in the Persian Gulf that they also put similar measures and to eliminate the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood.
According to an official statement of the Saudi government in Riyadh this issue is key to its survival, while others, including Turkey, is a matter of luxury democracy, human rights, etc..
Saudi Arabia victory for democracy project which embody Islamic Muslim Brothers, on the one hand, while on the other revolutionary jihadist Islam, is a challenge for both the opposing discourses, and it would be a total crash and loss of reputation in Saudi eyes of Muslims and total degradation of the state as protector of the two harems (holy places of Mecca and Medina). For this reason, the government in Riyadh has decided to stay in this symbolic struggle of ideas from which will emerge the winner, whose Islamic discourse to be the leader in the Islamic world.
In this cold war of ideas, which is being developed within the Sunni world, Saudi Arabia and its allies are hoping that with the help of the amount of petrodollars could decide the relative stability of the Arab world, which promise economic growth and prosperity.
Unlike its main rival, Turkey and Muslim brotherhoods is the idea of freedom and democracy, in combination with development projects. For this reason Turkey is calculated as the leading sponsor of Sunni Islamic political movements in the Middle East region. For Riyadh, this positioning of Turkey poses a serious threat to regional stability that is based on maintaining the status quo. Because of its historic role as a leader in Islamic history and its Ottoman heritage, especially due to the promotion of the idea of kompatabiletit Islamic and democratic government in Turkey today from Riyadh viewed with suspicion as a serious rival for the leadership position Sunni Islam in the Islamic world. What was once conflict between Wahhabism and Sufism in the Arabian peninsula, during the decline of the Ottoman Empire, today can be said to incarnate the political conflict between the Saudi interpretation of Islam and Arab democracy idea, initiated by the Arab Spring which promotes Turkey.
This conflict is reflected in most states of the Arab and Islamic world, are not invisible in its periphery, including Bosnia and Herzegovina. Paradoxical fact is that Islamic movements like the Muslim Brothers who were once welcomed in Saudi Arabia, which the kingdom has used the opportunity as a way to monitor the important aspects of their foreign policy, especially in the fight against nationalism Arab and former naserizmit in Egypt, today they have become the biggest enemies Saudi perceptions.
The fierce rivalry with Saudi Arabia and Turkey, regarding the interpretation of Islamic society and political regulation of long-term vision of the Middle East, is evidence that political legitimacy gained in free democratic elections the will of the people expressed not guarantee control Islamic discourse, but depends on other factors, where is the liability ratio democratic West against military coup in Egypt. In the cold war for the acquisition of Muslims to Saudi Arabia is currently winning the battle. But, if you take the fact that this race is a big marathon, the final solution may be different.
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Osman Softic is a graduate theologian and Master of International Relations from the University UNSW in Sydney.Deals with research and analysis of global economic policy issues with emphasis posaqshëm in Southeast Asia and the Pacific region.