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The "Lame duck Warns" Russia: There Will Be ‘Costs’ to Ukraine Intervention

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Putin requests senators’ approval to send troops to Crimea




روسيا تحبس أنفاس العالم من بوابة أوكرانيا

Earlier on Saturday, the speaker of the Russian State Duma Council Valentina Matvienko said that the current circumstances in Ukraine make such a move possible.
It’s possible in this situation, complying with a request by the Crimean government, even to bring a limited contingent of our troops to ensure the safety of the Black Sea Fleet and the Russian citizens living on Crimean territory. The decision is for the president, the chief military commander, to make, of course. But today, taking the situation into account, even that variant can’t be excluded. We need to protect the people,” Matvienko said.
“In connection with the extraordinary situation in Ukraine, the threat to the lives of citizens of the Russian Federation, our compatriots, and the personnel of the armed forces of the Russian Federation on Ukrainian territory (in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea)... I submit a proposal on using the armed forces of the Russian Federation on the territory of Ukraine until the normalization of the socio-political situation in the that country.”
The Russian government has so far been careful in its assessment of the new self-proclaimed Ukrainian government in Kiev. Matvienko said the reason for that was Russia counting on its Western partners, who vowed to guarantee the February 21 agreements between Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich and the opposition.
Russia did not interfere in the situation in Ukraine for a very long time and showed restraint, assuming that the Western states, which became backers of the agreements, would see that strict compliance with the deal is observed,” she said.
However, after “violent upheaval” took place in Ukraine, the Western states did not come up with “any reasonable measures or responses,” Matvienko said.
Russia, in contrast, for a very long time has urged the situation to be resolved by lawful means, and called for the anti-coup sentiments in Crimea and in eastern Ukraine to be heard, she said.
Not seeing an adequate reaction from the West, we could no longer maintain status quo,” the speaker concluded.
Matvienko stated as thousands of pro-Russian demonstrators rallied in the Crimean cities of Simferopol, Melitopol, Yevpatoria and Mariupol, protesting against the rule of new Kiev authorities.
According to the Russian Constitution, the use of Army on foreign territories can only be approved by the majority of the Federation Council members upon a request by the President.
The developments follow an appeal by the Prime Minister of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov, who requested that Russia to help cope with the crisis and ensure “peace and calm” in the region.
The tension in Crimea escalated following an attempt to seize the building of the local Interior Ministry by gunmen overnight. Russia’s Foreign Ministry condemned the move in a statement, blaming the new authorities in Kiev for intending to “destabilize the situation on the peninsula.

Obama Warns Russia: There Will Be ‘Costs’ to Ukraine Intervention


US President Braack Obama expressed “deep concern” on Ukraine on Friday, as he warned Moscow that military intervention in the former Soviet country lead to "costs”.

"We are now deeply concerned by reports of military movements taken by the Russian Federation inside of Ukraine," he told reporters.

Obama and European leaders would consider skipping a G8 summit this summer in the Russian city of Sochi if Moscow intervenes militarily in Ukraine, a senior U.S. official said.

"The United States will stand with the international community in affirming that there will be costs for any military intervention in Ukraine," Obama said in the White House briefing room.

Facing yet another confrontation with President Vladimir Putin after butting heads with him over Syria, Obama said any “violation of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity” would be "deeply destabilizing."

Obama did not spell out what he meant by Russian military intervention.

Russia has a huge naval base in Ukraine's Crimea Peninsula and says it has the right to move troops in Ukraine under an agreement between the two former Soviet neighbors.
U.S. officials said they saw indications of Russian troop movements into Crimea but that their numbers and intentions were unclear.

The crisis has presented Obama with a difficult challenge days after pro-Western protesters prompted Ukraine's pro-Moscow President Viktor Yanukovich to flee to Russia.

Armed men took control of two airports in the Crimea region in what the new Ukrainian leadership described as an “invasion” by Moscow's forces, and Yanukovich surfaced in Russia a week after he fled Kiev.

Ukraine fell into political crisis last year when Yanukovich spurned a broad trade deal with the European Union and accepted a $15 billion Russian bailout that is now in question.

Source: Reuters
01-03-2014 - 09:49 Last updated 01-03-2014

What really happened overnight in Crimea?

The Saker

The European Saker - in his own words:This night sure was interesting.  It appears that a group of unidentified armed men took control of the Belbek and Simferopol airports and, according to some reports, of an air-traffic control facility, then left.  They kept a low profile, were extremely polite and said that they had come to prevent a "Ukrainian paratrooper force" from landing, but that this had been a false alarm.  They then apologized and left.  The pro-nationalist media first accused the Black Sea Fleet, which immediately issued a denial, then they blamed the Russian Spetsnaz GRU for the operation.  

Interestingly, a group of Mi-24 attack helicopters was seen flying in the direction of the Belbek airport the same day, and filmed by a civilian driver on the highway.  Check it out:

 
Pro-nationalist sites have published the following photos which they claim show the armed men in question:




Also, a detachment of Ukrainian Border Guards in Balaklava have been surrounded by what the nationalists claim is Russian Naval Infantry unit which, according to the same sources, declared that they mission was to prevent weapons from falling into the hands of insurgents.


Finally, it was reported that a Turkish airliner which was scheduled to land in Crimea decided to turn around and fly back upon hearing the news of the seizure of the airports.

What does all that mean?

I will be honest with you and immediately admit that I don't know for sure.  My sense is that something triggered an alert on the Russian side, possibly the arrival of the Turkish aircraft.  After all, why did it turn back instead of either landing like other aircraft did, or land somewhere nearby?  Could it be that there was something aboard this plane which the Turks did not want the Russians to seize?

Concerning the helicopters seen: these are Mi-24 which the Black Sea Fleet does not use.  As far as I know, the only Mi-24 unit of the Russian Navy is the 125th Independent Helicopter Squadron of the Baltic Fleet and it is based in Chkalovsk, near Kaliningrad, very far from the Ukraine.

Again, I might be mistaken (maybe the footage is ancient, or filmed elsewhere), but I have the feeling that the nationalists are saying the truth when they claim that Russian combat helicopters have crossed the border and executed some mission in the Crimea.  I counted a dozen Mi-24 in this video, which is *a lot* of firepower.  Also, each Mi-24 can fit up to 8 soldiers, so in this case we could assume that each could carry at least 4 heavily armed soldiers and their gear, for a total of 48 combatants.  But since there is no shortage of local manpower, my guess is that these were flying as fire support for another unit, probably those who seized the airports.

But if Russia thought that some threat justified sending in 12 Mi-24s is broad daylight, could it also have sent in some Spetsnaz units?  I would say that yes, this is possible.  So, again, I think that the nationalist who claim that what they saw was a Spetsnaz GRU operation might well be right.  Lastly, and very subjectively, that very polite and low profile attitude towards bystanders is very typical of Russian Spetsnaz forces, I saw that with my own eyes in Moscow in 1993 when the arrogant and big-mouth forces which has crushed the Parliament were replaced by real Spetsnaz units: these guys were all very polite, very distant and, frankly, very scary in highly focused attitude.

So my sense is that there was some threat which was perceived serious enough by the Russian military to send in troops from across the border, probably not because of any shortage of manpower locally, but because specialized troops were better suited to the mission.  The Russian Spetsnaz secured the airports, the Naval Infantry unit blocked the Ukrainian Border Guard while the local volunteer militias were used to shut down the roads and assure general protection.  The threat than receded, and Russians left their positions and withdrew.

Or maybe there never was any threat and the purpose of all that was a show of force.  Could be.  The maneuvers ordered by Putin in western Russia will make it very hard for the US to keep track of who is doing what and under the cover of training missions a lot can be done.  So maybe this was just a way to send a message to Kiev, Brussels and Washington? 

Whatever may be the case, and maybe I am totally wrong here, but my sense is that Russian forces did cross into Crimea last night.

The Saker

PS: in the meantime, the Russian Duma has been busy working on two proposed laws: on granting Russian citizenship to Ukrainians on a expedited and accelerated basis and on, I kid you not, making it easier for a foreign state to join the Russian Federation.  The writing is on the wall.

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