Has the US made up its mind on Aoun?

French President François Hollande was one of the most enthusiastic about Suleiman’s term extension. Sources from the Lebanese presidential palace claim he had suggested the idea to Suleiman in Baabda in November 2012. However, visitors of the French capital came back recently with another story. Lebanese politicians quoted people close to Hollande as saying that he merely asked about the term extension and did not suggest it.

Those who heard this piece of information believed the French president retracted his suggestion "to extend Suleiman’s term in order to avoid a presidential vacuum that would put Lebanon’s stability in jeopardy." A Lebanese politician who frequents the Elysée Palace added that Hollande prefers to strengthen the position of the Lebanese presidency. "It is the highest Christian authority in the East," he said. "The extension will have a negative impact on the position of the presidency."

Potential presidential candidates heard this piece of news, but this does not mean the race has begun. One of potential candidates said that one cannot speak about a battle for Baabda, unless "the US makes up its mind about nominating General Michel Aoun for president."

The Lebanese politician jokingly said "Aoun in Baabda would be the same as having Samir Geagea there. Both are equivalent to electing former President Bachir Gemayel. It will lead to civil war."

This differs with what is being said by associates of Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri and MP Walid Jumblatt, the pioneers of the post-Taif political school, who say that the US has adopted the nomination of Aoun for president. "Washington wants to expose Hezbollah nationally," said a Jumblatt associate, feeling uneasy about the possibility.

Some of Berri and Jumblatt’s associates put the US and former Prime Minister Saad Hariri's "openness" towards Aoun purely in the context of a "conspiracy." In fact, politicians from Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) and some centrists indicate that Berri and Jumblatt would prefer a president that is closer to the style of Elias Hrawi, Lebanon’s first president after the Taif agreement.

"Saad Hariri also agrees," the sources close to Berri and Jumblatt added. "Those who want to make sure can look closely to the communications between Gebran Bassil and director of Hariri's office, Nader Hariri. They could also listen to Aoun's sweet talk about Saad and Nader. There is no one left to oppose Aoun's nomination, except us, March 14 Christians, and the Saudis."

In the March 14 camp, specifically in the Future Movement, there are those who merely grin when asked about the issue. "Don't be silly," says a source within the Future Movement. "If Aoun breaks his alliance with Hezbollah, we would begin to think about his nomination to the presidency, while taking our allies into account." However, he insinuated that the Future Movement would not lose by unnerving Hezbollah by approaching Aoun.

The news about the current truce between Hariri and Aoun is no less distressing to March 8 supporters than it is to those close to Berri and Jumblatt. Some politicians are openly expressing their fear of an Aoun-US agreement, which would dissolve the alliance between the FPM and Hezbollah.

Yet it seems clear that the source of the anxiety over the issue is the lack of information about what goes on behind the doors of the closed meetings between Aoun, US Ambassador David Hill, and Saad Hariri on one side, and between Aoun and Hezbollah General Secretary Hassan Nasrallah on the other.

It seems not many people in Hezbollah and the FPM knew what happened in the latest meetings between Nasrallah and Aoun. However, those familiar with the relationship between the two men maintained that Hezbollah's support for Aoun's nomination to the presidency "does not need discussion."

Sources close to Hezbollah reminded the "skeptics" of the 2006 July War and Aoun's steadfast support of the Resistance. The same sources added that the positive talk about Aoun and Hezbollah's emphasis on backing him in the battle for the presidency "are not merely directed to its supporters. It is what Nasrallah says in Hezbollah's internal meetings."