Regional developments to determine presidential election date

The Middle East is facing a series of fateful elections. The Turkish municipal elections gave Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan a boost. The path of the presidential election in Egypt is now quite clear, and the same goes for the upcoming Iraqi elections.

There is a whole other dimension to the elections in Lebanon. Leave aside online and political opinion polls, the internal discussions in political and religious assemblies, and the characteristics of the forthcoming president prescribed left and right. The 2014 presidential election is more of a regional and international affair than a local one. This is not a new development in the history of Lebanese presidential elections, whose outcome always expressed a compromise of regional and international interests.

The time for great compromises between major regional players hasn’t arrived yet and the new government was only formed to avoid a power vacuum. The only certainty today is that the main influential players are Saudi Arabia and Iran. Contact between them is underway with US supervision and Oman acting as an indirect mediator, and their talks extend beyond the issue of the Lebanese elections.

Prime Minister Tammam Salam only appeared on the scene when Major General Wissam al-Hassan was assassinated and Prime Minister Najib Mikati resigned. Salam was assigned to form a new government and stayed on as a prime minister designate without a government for 10 months as a sign that Saudi-Iranian relations had not matured yet. People should be aware that we are only talking about managing this relationship, not reaching a deal between the two sides.

As soon as the Saudi-Iranian relationship was put in order, the government was formed within hours. Objections that had been voiced by those opposed to the allocation of ministries between different political factions dissipated and the parties inside Lebanon skipped several steps and issued the decree forming the government within seconds.

Since these are not yet times for major agreements, the deal was restricted to managing the relationship between Saudi and Iran. The same scenario was repeated with the cabinet statement. Had the constitution not been firm about setting a deadline for issuing a cabinet statement, it would not have been written in the final hour before the deadline.

What does that mean?

The communication between Saudi Arabia and Iran makes it clear that neither they, nor any of the international powers with influence over Lebanese affairs want to see the country descend into a state of chaos. Instead, they want to maintain an acceptable level of stability. That is why those in charge took their time to form the new government as the possibility of a power vacuum hung over their heads.

If the channels of regional communication do not succeed in finding a compromise for the presidential elections and preparing for the elections before May 25, then these regional powers see the government in its current form - as it represents most Lebanese parties - an alternative to the president to keep charge of the domestic situation and prevent the country from falling into chaos and total collapse. This phenomenon is not new new to Lebanon. More than six years ago, the government of former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora was in charge when the country witnessed a vacuum in the presidency after former President Emile Lahoud’s term ended.

Now that the government card is in the hands of regional players in anticipation of the possibility of a power vacuum, discussion of the presidential election after May 25 will be governed by other deadlines having to do with the end of the parliamentary term on November 20. This means, according to informed political sources, that the channel of regional communications might not be governed by the May 25 constitutional deadline but rather by another logical deadline which is the end of the already extended parliamentary term. This gives everyone more time until the regional picture created by the elections in neighboring countries and the shape of their new governments becomes clearer.

If the presidential election is pushed beyond the May 25 deadline towards the end of the parliamentary term, then the election will take on a new meaning and require different arrangements having to do with the complicated issue of a new electoral law for the upcoming parliamentary elections. The new president will face at the beginning of his term an important task, namely, producing an electoral law and having the first election during his term. The deal then would be a comprehensive one that would include a new president and a new electoral law similar to what the Doha agreement rendered.

Having the presidential election - which may not take place within the constitutional deadline - and developing contacts and communication between Saudi Arabia and Iran require internal measures and a purely local director. Usually, this mission is given to the Speaker of the Parliament Nabih Berri who has provided this kind of direction in many instances the last of which was forming the current government and issuing its statement. It appears so far that the same thing is going to happen and the key to the presidential election and any regional arrangements regarding Lebanon will be in Berri’s hands.

Christians, the Maronite clergy, and Maronite presidential candidates will have no choice but to stand on the sidelines again. It is not permissible to reach a state of presidential vacuum and it is necessary to have the election on time.